We were promised a revolution. We were told that Trump and Pence would end, that communism or anarchism or whatever would rise up and free America from this fascist nightmare. Or something.
The inactivity on the 4th seemed a little disappointing, even for those of us who have grown accustomed to the puerile incompetence of the current generation's radical leftists. But the expectation itself was naive. The thought of an armed insurrection of John Lennons comes from an older model of warfare. We're in a new paradigm now.
Within the 4GW frame, the inactivity of Nov 4 was entirely predictable. It was, in a way, exactly what was promised: not the initiation of an old-fashioned coup, but of a modern 4GW one.
What does that entail?
Look to ISIS.
ISIS is a decentralized band of inexperienced but technologically-savvy men, from all around the world. They spread primarily through propaganda, which conventional armed forces are powerless to stop, and which our intelligence forces are ideologically prevented from combating with the necessary tools for the job. Their attacks are not cavalry charges or helicopter raids, but solitary gunmen, "lone wolves," who usually have no personal contact with the organization they pledge their allegiance to.
In his most recent book, Vox Day observes that victory is not positive PR. Victory is when your enemy gives up. These attacks are executed to induce fear; not generalized dread, but the fear of resisting, of speaking out. What might happen? Will they come for my job? For my family? Might they even kill me?
As of yet, we have no concrete reason to believe that Stephen Paddock, Devin Kelley, or Rene Boucher were motivated by politics in their attacks. The first two seemed to have apolitical inner demons, and the latter appears to have been the culmination of a more personal feud. But it is possible that they could be political. We know the shooting of Steve Scalise was.
These are the sorts of attacks we will be seeing. Not a grand coup, but a war of attrition waged against your confidence, your security, your courage, and your sanity. The majority of offensives will never make news papers, because they won't be physical attacks, but attacks on your livelihood, your culture, your family and social life, perhaps only on your time. Anything to raise the cost of living in a manner contrary to the ends of the enemy.
For Antifa itself, this strategy may prove Pyrrhic. They are simply not serious enough, intelligent enough, wealthy enough, organized enough, or creative enough to stand a reasonable chance of succeeding. But the reality of warfare that we live in today won't go away simply because Antifa does. They are the product of their environment, and the environment has proved that these strategies work. People do become more afraid. They do withdraw more. For that reason, we can expect there will be more attacks. Maybe Black Lives Matter will evolve into something like the old Black Panthers, or Weather Underground, or maybe something entirely new will emerge in the vacuum.
Don't be scared or fooled by the quiet of the November 4th "revolution." We were given exactly what was promised: a gesture made to induce fear -- however ineptly -- laden with a believable threat of physical violence. Like ISIS, they know that their power isn't just what they have, but what we and other ordinary Americans think they have. We should not overestimate nor underestimate the power of a declaration, no matter how daunting or ineffectual it may at first appear. Gloating would seem premature and weak if it turns out that Senator Paul dies from injuries sustained from a planned politically-motivated attack. Conversely, cowering in fear of the Nov 4 Great Revolution is a paranoid overreaction.
In the end, what they have is words. Only time will tell their effects, but we should do what we can not to give more power to our enemies by taking them more seriously than they deserve. And they do deserve some credit.
But not that much.